This brief developed under SLYCAN Trust EU Work Programme examines the budgetary trends of the European Union (EU) and its 27 Member States from 2020 to 2025, and projects how trends through 2034 may affect international climate finance. Following theCOVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and global geopolitical tensions, EU and national budgets of Member States have increasingly shifted toward defence, energy security, and industrial competitiveness. As a result, climate finance risks being deprioritized, affecting the EU’s ability to fulfil its obligations under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement and support the scaling up of climate finance in line with the new collective quantified goal established at COP29.

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